GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 25 May 2017 (as available at TSX closing time).


 

Gold Outlook Going into Week of May 23rd (posted May 22th)


March 24 update (before market open): The SGE Au(T+D) futures contract showed a net Short to Long flow for the 24th. The last Short to Long flow occurred on May 10th (all other May dates were Long to Short) and mid April was the last time the SGE showed a daily Short to Long flows over several days in a row.


March 23 update: GLD ETF lost 5.03t ($203.8M) - click here for more on recent GLD ETF flows.


March 22 update: Although TSX/TSXv markets were closed, the GLD ETF added 1.77t ($71.64M), first bullion addition after 5 drops. The last increase in GLD bullion holdings occurred on April 25, 2017.


The Kitco weekly gold survey, as reported on Friday, has turned bullish going into the Canadian Victoria Day holiday week.

The GLD bullion holding trends versus gold closing price 6Q correlation (May 19th snapshot) remains high at 0.87 (blue line) while the trend over the last 30 trading days (red line) is essentially flat with the most recent close (marked with a X). .

In my opinion, the GLD bullion holdings have treated the recent changes in spot gold prices as noise.

The US$ index DXY 1Q (yellow line) and 1M (black line) trends (May 19th snapshot) are strongly negative .

The SGE continues to close with key Au(T+D) futures contracts showing net flows of Long to Short (weak negative for gold spot prices). However, gold priced in Renminbi is clearly rising over the last year (May19/17 close is greater than Nov21/16 close and the May23/16 close) which is long term bullish for gold prices - common belief is Chinese buy when gold prices are rising.

Political risks for gold prices are still elevated but are also likely factored into the 1M and partially factored in the 1Q trends.

Bottom line, I am looking for the gold prices to rise this week as the DXY drops while we wait for a confirmation of the longer term trend from GLD bullion holding numbers.




High Value Tips

Frank Holmes - May 19, 2017 Hedge Fund Managers Pour SALT on U.S. Stocks, Look to Europe

Frank Holmes - May 12, 2017 An Unexpected Change In Golds Seasonal Trade Pattern




Data Exploration Tools

Caution: These single page TSX gold miner data exploration tools are in alpha release. Documentation is very poor. Focus to date has been on data cleaning and will continue to be on data cleaning. First pass verification of Producer data has been completed from January 2013 and from July 2013 for Explorer/Developers.

Please see SUBMIT under the help page for a resolution of the previously reported returns calcuation error.

TSX/TSXv Gold Producer - Rankings Based on Fundamental Metrics

A mobile friendly alpha release of the a TSX/TSXv gold producer single page application is now available for review at here. Use this tool to:

  • Order TSX/TSXv gold producers using fundamental metrics:

    • auoz - in situ gold ounces (resources inclusive of reserves)

    • auv - in situ gold value divided by issued shares divided by share closing price

    • grd - in situ gold grade

    • evoz - enterprise value per ounce of in situ gold

    • aup - gold production per share

    • auvp - gold production per share divided by share price

    • atv - average trade value over last 5 days

  • Use LIMIT at the top of the app to adjust the number of companies in the list. Averages returns for each metric are computed based on the LIMIT for each metric and shown with a quartile color scheme. Click on a metric to show the companies in that list that generated to average return. The list of companies is always relative to highlighted column.

    Set the LIMIT to the maximum value in the drop down to show all companies. 25 companies ofter provides the best return over a given time period.

  • Use the Reference date to set the date from which returns over Jump trading xx days is computed. If a stock does not have a closing price xx days after the Reference date then it is excluded from average computation.

  • Companies have at least 250K ounces of in situ gold and at least 12% of the their in situ metal value from gold. Other preset filter details to be documented in a future alpha release.

  • All comments, questions and suggests are welcome - please e-mail: dennis@goldminerpulse.com

TSX/TSXv Gold Explorer / Developer - Rankings Based on Fundamental Metrics

A mobile friendly alpha release of the a TSX/TSXv gold explorer/developer single page application is now available for review at here. Use this tool to:

  • Order TSX/TSXv gold explorer/developers using fundamental metrics:

    • auoz - in situ gold ounces (resources inclusive of reserves)

    • auv - in situ gold value divided by issued shares divided by share closing price

    • grd - in situ gold grade

    • evoz - enterprise value per ounce of in situ gold

    • atv - average trade value over last 5 days

  • Compute returns from any trading date (Reference Date) from January 2013 to latest update (typically updated after market close each day and end of week worst case) and for a number of holding periods ranging from days to years.

  • Closing price is a major issue with this group as on any given day there are a few to many stocks that did not trade. This version uses the last closing price, which may be from a previous day, to compute returns. Set the SPREAD in the top line of the app to added up to 1 cent to each buy and subtract up to 1 cent on each sell to make returns calculations more realistic. Design intent is to not show a price if a stock has not traded in the last 9 days. Other end of day price adjustments to be applied in future alpha version.

  • All comments, questions and suggests are welcome - please e-mail: dennis@goldminerpulse.com





   

Gold and Silver Production Statistics

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 25.13M ounces (861.60 tons or 781.63 tonnes), a 0.7% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 161.73M ounces (5,545.03 tons or 5,030.37 tonnes), a -2.5% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of January, February, March 2017, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Reporting
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Silver Δ
64 of 79 6,001,955 oz
 
205.8 tons
 
186.7 tonne
-10% 35,207,930 oz
 
1,207 tons
 
1,095 tonne
-7%

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Gold Reserves
(tons)

 

Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Gold Producers

13502 34262

Gold Developers

3869 13773

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2212 8479

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

106 4559

All Gold Equities

19689 61073

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Silver Reserves
(tons)

 

Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Silver Producers

117815 282451

Silver Developers

37918 137615

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6563 44421

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

541 40641

All Silver Equities

162837 505128

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity

 
Metric

Producers
 

 

Developers
 

 

Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

 

Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

 

Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$83 $14 $6 $19

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $14 $3 $24

Net Working Capital
(US$)

$21,587M $1,722M $484M $1,215M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies

6

Gold/Silver Producers

79

Gold/Silver Developers

112

Gold/Silver Explorers

203

Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)

~30,000

Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.

 

Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $108,210
Gold & Silver Streamers $22,039
Gold & Silver Developers $10,931
Gold & Silver Explorers $7,222
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $148,403
 
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
$520,447

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 25% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 25% of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

NOTE October 24, 2016: Lowered the TSX/TSXv producer gold production estimate to 25% down from 33% - thus the spike in Market Cap Estimate for the World's Gold & Silver miners.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

 

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Gold ETF Money Flows

Daily Price of Gold changes
Money Flows in/out of GLD
plus the SGE Premium and Settlement volume
mon-dd POG
% Chg
GLD SGE
Prem.
SGE
Sett.
Volume
May 26 ? 37.66t
May 25 0.12% $12 16.94t
May 24 0.48% $0 16.16t
May 23 0.71% $203.8M $19 13.75t
May 22 0.42% $71.6M $4 13.53t

May 19 0.51% $5 18.82t
May 18 0.77% $47.7M $8 17.116t
May 17 1.78% $5 17.116t
May 16 0.46% $1 19.36t
May 15 0.24% $14 19.83t

May 12 0.34% $12 20.95t
May 11 0.38% $10 16.91t
May 10 0.06% $13 8.14t
May 9 0.59% $18 12.92t
May 8 0.16% $47.1M $13 8.66t

May 5 0.02% $13 10.36t
May 4 0.88% $11.1M $16 18.18t
May 3 1.38% $24 14.91t
May 2 0.02% $10 18.76t
May 1 0.81% NA NA

April 28 0.23% $10 23.17t
April 27 0.38% $36.1M $9 22.76t
April 26 0.47% $4 20.38t
April 25 0.98% $241.3M $17 17.39t
April 24 0.70% $60.4M $4 15.62t

April 21 0.27% $183.0M $3 17.72t
April 20 0.13% $268.4M $4 20.13t
April 19 0.76% $486.9M $11 22.70t
April 18 0.51% $2 20.78t
April 17 0.29% $11 19.68t

April 14 NA NA NA 18.76t
April 13 0.52% $268.8M $7 24.14t
April 12 0.73% $3 21.45t
April 11 1.45% $167.2M $3 13.49t
April 10 0.01% $71.1M $14 16.06t

April 7 0.17% $11.0M $20 16.80t
April 6 0.37% $12 9.86t
April 5 0.06% $8 17.91t
April 4 0.28% NA NA
April 3 0.42% $178.0M NA NA

March 31 0.21% $7 20.59t
March 30 0.65% $47.8M $18 13.48t
March 29 0.22% $10 10.18t
March 28 0.39% $71.6M $18 19.47t
March 27 0.62% $107.6M $15 22.48t

March 24 0.09% $71.4M $8 25.33t
March 23 0.11% $11 17.14t
March 22 0.29% $12 20.21t
March 21 0.79% $165.7M $1 15.95t
March 20 0.46% $152.6M $14 18.30t

A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.

A X indicates the GDX ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings.

POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.

For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.

The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.

 

Gold Price Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

GLD ETF Bullion Holdings Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

Click here for a scatter plot of GLD gold holdings versus price of gold.

 

DXY 4PM Quote Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

 

LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the Gold Held in the GLD ETF

The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:

On a year by year basis the positive correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings follows:

Finally, the correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings over the last 10+ years of the GLD ETF follows:

Click here for more scatter plots.

 

LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Close

The DXY has been negatively correlated with gold price in recent years. The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:



 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2017 (YTD average): $11.38

  • 2016 (Full year average): $5.72

  • 2015 (Full year average): $2.17

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
26 May 2017 280.31 $1271 ? ?
25 May 2017 279.964 $1268 $1256 $12
24 May 2017 278.49 $1257 $1257 $0
23 May 2017 281.20 $1270 $1251 $19
22 May 2017 279.95 $1264 $1260 $4
19 May 2017 279.14 $1260 $1255 $5
...
25 November 2016 268.96 $1209 $1184 $25
24 November 2016 270.12 $1215 $1184 $31
23 November 2016 272.8 $1232 $1189 $43
22 November 2016 272.39 $1232 $1212 $20
21 November 2016 272.39 $1230 $1212 $18
18 November 2016 270.48 $1222 $1208 $14
...
27 May 2016 257.95 $1222 $1210 $13
26 May 2016 259.63 $1231 $1219 $12
25 May 2016 248.24 $1226 $1224 $2
24 May 2016 269.12 $1243 $1228 $16
23 May 2016 264.45 $1255 $1248 $7
20 May 2016 264.23 $1254 $1252 $2

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.

 

Gold and Silver Miner Daily Update Counts

The following plot shows showing a per day count of gold/silver producers/developers/explorers with one or more "metric impacting" Sedar updates (e.g. resource disclosures, financial statements, shares for debt, private placements, options grants, project ownership changes, mergers/acquisitions, etc.).

As of 11 July 2016, plot updates are being made at the end of each trading day, typically after GLD, GDX and GDXJ have reported their daily stats.

Note: Snapshots are always taken at 4PM of the current day. Any filings after 4PM will only be counted at the next close.

 

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