GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 28 September 2016 (as available at TSX closing time).


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GLD Bullion Inventory Signal For Trading Gold Producers

28 September 2016 After Market Close - GLD bullion holdings were unchanged. Remain out of the market. Wait for a second decrease to open new short positions or else re-open long positions if there are two increases in holdings.

3 August 2016 Note: given the strong 6Q/3Q/1Q/1M up trend in gold prices (see plots in on the left hand side of page) as well as the frequent churns in 2016, it appears that a change of rules is in order -- to that end I will be back testing a rule that uses double drop (or double add) when the move is counter to the current 6Q/3Q/1Q/1M trend. With this rule, the 3 August decrease in holdings would not have generated an exit long positions signal.

Date (AMC) Signal (for next day execution)


Signal Definitions and Notes:
Out - Waiting Long Confirmation: No action requird. Previous GLD change was a GLD inflow. A second inflow event is still required to trigger an Open Long signal.
Out - Waiting Short Confirmation: No action requird. Previous GLD change was a GLD outflow. A second outflow event is still required to trigger an Open Short signal.
Open Short - two consecutive outflow events (with possible zero flow days in between) occurred this day which is the signal to short gold producers. Use additional factors to select best short candidates.
Close Short - a GLD inflow occurred. Close gold equity short positions.
Open Long - two consecutive GLD inflow events (with possible zero flow days in between) is the signal to go long gold producers. Use additional factors to select best long candidates.
Close Long - a GLD outflow occurred. Close gold equity long positions.
Note 1: All trades are executed on the following trading day since the GLD signal is generated after markets have closed for the day
Note 2: The GLD algorithm is fully detailed, along with back test results from 2004 (the year GLD was launched), in Trading Gold Producers Using GLD Bullion Inventory Levels As A Signal .
2016-09-28 Out -- Waiting for a second decrease in GLD holdings to Go Short.
2016-09-27 Close Long
2016-09-22 Open Long
2016-09-21 Out -- Waiting for a second increase in GLD holdings to Go Long.
2016-09-20 Out -- Waiting for a second decrease in GLD holdings to Go Short.
2016-09-19 Out -- Waiting for a second increase in GLD holdings to Go Long.
2016-09-16 Close Short
2016-09-08 Open Short
2016-09-07 Out -- Waiting for a second decrease in GLD holdings to Go Short.
2016-09-06 Close Short
2016-08-30 Open Short
2016-08-25 Out -- Waiting for a second decrease in GLD holdings to Go Short.
2016-08-24 Out -- Waiting for a second increase in GLD holdings to Go Long.
2016-08-22 Close Short
2016-08-18 Open Short
2016-08-17 Out -- Waiting for a second decrease in GLD holdings to Go Short
2016-08-16 Close Short
2016-08-09 Open Short
2016-08-08 Close Long
2016-08-05 Open Long
2016-08-04 Out -- Waiting for a second increase in GLD holdings to Go Long
2016-08-03 Close Long
2016-08-01 Open Long
2016-07-29 Close Short
2016-07-25 Open Short
2016-07-21 Out -- Waiting for a second decrease in GLD holdings to Go Short
2016-07-20 Out -- Waiting for a second increase in GLD holdings to Go Long
2016-07-18 Close Short
2016-07-14 Open Short
2016-07-12 Out -- Waiting for a second decrease in GLD holdings to Go Short
2016-07-11 Out -- Waiting for a second increase in GLD holdings to Go Long
2016-07-08 Close Short
2016-07-07 Open Short
2016-07-06 Close Long
2016-06-10 Open Long
2016-06-09 Out -- Waiting for 2nd Inflow Event to Go Long
2016-06-07 Out -- Waiting for 2nd Outflow Event to Go Short
2016-06-06 Close Long
2016-06-02 Open Long
2016-06-01 Out -- Waiting for 2nd Inflow Event to Go Long
2016-05-25 Out -- Waiting for 2nd Outflow Event to Go Short
2016-05-24 Close Long
2016-05-02 Open Long
2016-04-29 Out -- Waiting for 2nd Inflow Event to Go Long
2016-04-28 Close Short
2016-04-25 Open Short
2016-04-19 Out -- Waiting for 2nd Outflow Event to Go Short
2016-04-18 Out -- Waiting for 2nd Inflow Event to Go Long
2016-04-15 Close Short
2016-04-12 Open Short
2016-04-08 Out -- Waiting for 2nd Outflow Event to Go Short
2016-04-07 Out -- Waiting for 2nd Inflow Event to Go Long
2016-04-06 Close Short
2016-03-30 Open Short
2016-03-29 Close Long
2016-03-16 Open Long
2016-03-15 Out -- Waiting for Long Confirmation
2016-03-14 Close Long
2016-03-10 Open Long
2016-03-09 Close Short
2016-03-08 Open Short
2016-03-07 Out -- Waiting Short Confirmation
2016-03-04 Close Long
2016-02-19 Open Long
2016-02-18 Out -- Waiting Long Confirmation
2016-02-12 Out -- Waiting Short Confirmation
2016-02-11 Out -- Waiting Long Confirmation
2016-02-10 Out -- Waiting Short Confirmation
2016-02-09 Close Long
2016-01-08 Open Long
 

Gold and Silver Miner Daily Update Counts

The following plot shows showing a per day count of gold/silver producers/developers/explorers with one or more "metric impacting" Sedar updates (e.g. resource disclosures, financial statements, shares for debt, private placements, options grants, project ownership changes, mergers/acquisitions, etc.).

As of 11 July 2016, plot updates are being made at the end of each trading day, typically after GLD, GDX and GDXJ have reported their daily stats.

Shanghai Gold Exchange, year to date gold deliveries from vault

Click on the thumb nail plot for a full page view. The trend line in the full page view clearly shows the TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner group filing activity is shrinking.

Note: Snapshots are always taken at 4PM of the current day. Any filings after 4PM will only be counted at the next close.

   

Gold and Silver Production Statistics

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 25.17M ounces (862.97 tons or 782.87 tonnes), a -0.4% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 179.02M ounces (6,137.83 tons or 5,568.14 tonnes), a -3.2% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of April, May and June 2016, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Reporting
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Silver Δ
75 of 79 5,975,132 oz
 
204.9 tons
 
185.8 tonne
1% 40,714,016 oz
 
1,396 tons
 
1,266 tonne
-2%

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Gold Reserves
(tons)

 

Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Gold Producers

13694 36145

Gold Developers

3941 14175

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2119 7974

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

93 4605

All Gold Equities

19846 62900

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Silver Reserves
(tons)

 

Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Silver Producers

117124 297206

Silver Developers

46750 214420

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6561 43989

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

590 37658

All Silver Equities

171025 593272

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity

 
Metric

Producers
 

 

Developers
 

 

Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

 

Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

 

Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$94 $14 $6 $29

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $14 $3 $24

Net Working Capital
(US$)

$19,539M $1,223M $329M $750M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies

6

Gold/Silver Producers

79

Gold/Silver Developers

106

Gold/Silver Explorers

205

Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)

~30,000

Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.

 

Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $114,495
Gold & Silver Streamers $22,665
Gold & Silver Developers $11,653
Gold & Silver Explorers $8,548
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $157,362
 
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
$437,768

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:

  • gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns

  • enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)

  • average ore value per tonne

  • breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)

  • options to fully customize report to your specific needs

are available on a subscription basis.

Gold Price Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

Click on the chart for a detailed view along with a full chart legend. Please see Outlook For Gold and Gold Equities in 2016 at Seeking Alpha for the details of my gold price linear regressions from 1990 (with back testing from 1970) and odds computation.

Multi-Quarter GLD Bullion Holdings Linear Regression

Click here for a scatter plot of GLD gold holdings versus price of gold.

 

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Gold ETF Money Flows

Daily Price of Gold changes
Money Flows in/out of GLD
plus the SGE Premium and Settlement volume
mon-dd POG
% Chg
GLD SGE
Prem.
SGE
Sett.
Volume
September 28 0.34% $3 14.13t
September 27 0.73% $88.7M $12 15.12t
September 26 0.02% $2 14.27t

September 23 0.01% $12.9M $1 11.48t
September 22 0.25% $281.1M $0 10.88t
September 21 1.46% $240.5M $10 8.28t
September 20 0.14% $163.1M $7 11.91t
September 19 0.14% $9 11.94t

September 16 0.24% $437.1M NA NA
September 15 0.61% $137.8M NA NA
September 14 0.33% $5 19.47t
September 13 0.77% $188.4M $13 15.04t
September 12 0.05% $5 14.19t

September 9 0.67% $457.0M $6 18.53t
September 8 0.54% $51.4M $11 8.80t
September 7 0.27% $14.3M $5 17.09t
September 6 1.76% $612.7M $16 16.56t

September 2 0.91% $11 17.37t
September 1 0.37% $224.8M $1 15.11t
August 31 0.18% $512.3M $8 17.16t
August 30 0.91% $50.4M $11 11.19t
August 29 0.20% $3 8.04t

A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.

A X indicates the GDX ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings.

POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.

For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.

The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2016 (YTD average): $0.89

  • 2015 (Full year average): $2.17

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
28 September 2016 284.45 $1326 $1323 $3
27 September 2016 287.25 $1340 $1327 $12
26 September 2016 287.01 $1339 $1337 $2
23 September 2016 286.83 $1338 $1337 $1
22 September 2016 286.59 $1337 $1337 $0
21 September 2016 284.13 $1325 $1334 $10
...
30 March 2016 256.53 $1234 $1225 $9
29 March 2016 254.69 $1217 $1241 $24
28 March 2016 255.20 $1223 $1219 $4
25 March 2016 255.83 $1221 NA NA
24 March 2016 254.88 $1217 $1217 $0
23 March 2016 258.03 $1233 $1220 $13
...
30 September 2015 229.88 $1125 $1116 $9
29 September 2015 229.88 $1127 $1128 $1
28 September 2015 233.50 $1140 $1133 $7
25 September 2015 233.90 $1141 $1147 $6
24 September 2015 227.99 $1111 $1153 $42
23 September 2015 232.63 $1133 $1130 $4

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.

 

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Outsource Your Gold Market Data Capture Tasks to GoldMinerPulse

Contact dennis@goldminerpulse.com to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner daily, weekly and monthly reports and private view web pages. I will be happy to work with you to design a product that matches your exact information capture and processing needs.

If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.

 

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