GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 29 March 2017 (as available at TSX closing time).


 

Gold Outlook Going into Week of March 27th (Prepared March 26/17)


March 28 Update: GLD ETF dropped 1.77t ($71.6M), a flip from the rise in bullion holdings on Monday after the dip on Friday. See GLD ETF for recent flows.

Typically the changes in GLD ETF holding is much smoother with few holdings reversals - March 2017 to date has had 5 reversals in holdings (increasing holdings to decreasing holdings or visa versa). The March up/down changes in bullion holdings is suggestive of a major trend change in the works.

At this point, in my opinion, based on trends and historical counts, odds still favor the next major trend to be a rising gold price. However, volatility in gold price is likely to continue until there is a confirmed direction as will be signaled by changes in GLD ETF bullion holdings (i.e. increasing or unchanged for over several weeks if the gold price trend is up or decreasing or unchanged if the gold price trend is down).


March 27 Update: GLD ETF added 2.66t ($107.6M), first rise after the Friday drop in holdings. Outlook for the week remains unchanged (bullish).


The weekly Kitco survey going into next week has Wall Street and Main Street as bullish as they were last week and as bullish as they have been in a while. A contrary opinion (i.e. expect gold prices to fall) failed last week and is likely to fail again in the up-coming week.

Some points to consider for a rising gold price next week is the potential news on March 29th that the UK is invoking article 50 to formally start the process of leaving the EU. In June 2016 when the the UK referundum passed, gold shot from $1263 to $1327 in a few days before going on to 2016 high. Although the expectation is probably in the gold price already, some may be holding back to buy the actual announcement - the mid March Fed interest rate bump was heavily expected but the actual event cause a gold price bump. I am expecting Article 50 to be involved and that will likely be followed by an increase in GLD gold bullion holdings - as of 24 March 2017, the correlation between GLD Bullion Holdings and the LBMA gold price close was running at 0.88 - daily updates provided here.

The 6Q and 1Q gold price trend lines are trending upwards. The 1M trend line is weakly negative and likely to flip to the positive next week. View the chart, and see daily updates, here.

The 1Q and 1M DXY trend lines are negative and thus supporting a rising gold price. However, the DXY 6Q and 3Q trends are positive indicative of falling gold prices according to conventional wisdom and recent behavior. View the chart, and see daily updates, here.

The LBMA PM Gold Close Correlation with DXY New York Close is returning towards trend. A drop in the DXY to the 97 level would be trend and a further drop would be required if gold prices rise. View the chart, and see daily updates, here. A review of the scatter plot suggests the traversal back to trend will be from higher gold prices and falling DXY.

From a longer term perspective the best advise on the web this weekend is from a Kitco interview, Will This Gold Rally Last? Frank Holmes Comments. A very rough summary: Watch the 5/10 year bond rate minus CPI. If you get or expect a negative value then expect gold price to rise. If you get or expect positive value then expect gold prices to fall. This video with the U.S. Global CEO is a must see.

U.S. Global was also in the news last week: U.S. Global Investors' Gold Fund Earns Lipper Fund Award:

"We're very pleased and honored that our gold fund is recognized by Lipper," says Holmes. "Our mission at U.S. Global Investors is to provide robust financial products that meet investors' needs, and this recognition certainly helps us make that case. I always recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent of that in gold equities. The Gold and Precious Metals Fund, I believe, is an excellent way for investors to get exposure to quality gold mining companies."

...

Frank Holmes and Ralph Aldis co-manage the Gold and Precious Metals Fund as well as the World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX), which gives investors greater exposure to junior and intermediate mining companies for added growth potential. Holmes and Aldis were honored with the Mining Journal's Best Americas Based Fund Manager award for 2016.

Holmes comments, "Gold responded well to the most recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve on March 15. After the announcement, gold promptly rose more than $20 an ounce, a sign that investors see current monetary policy as dovish. This is good for gold prices going forward, especially with geopolitical uncertainty rising both here in the U.S. and abroad."


My bottom line for the week of March 27: You have to favor the established near term gold price trends going into next week even though a contrarian view is tempting.




High Value Tips

Frank Holmes - March 24, 2017 Will This Gold Rally Last? Frank Holmes Comments

Frank Holmes - March 17, 2017 America's New Emphasis on Fiscal Policy




Data Exploration Tools

Caution: These single page TSX gold miner data exploration tools are in alpha release. Documentation is very poor. Focus to date has been on data cleaning and will continue to be on data cleaning. First pass verification of Producer data has been completed from January 2013 and from July 2013 for Explorer/Developers.

Please see SUBMIT under the help page for a resolution of the previously reported returns calcuation error.

TSX/TSXv Gold Producer - Rankings Based on Fundamental Metrics

A mobile friendly alpha release of the a TSX/TSXv gold producer single page application is now available for review at here. Use this tool to:

  • Order TSX/TSXv gold producers using fundamental metrics:

    • auoz - in situ gold ounces (resources inclusive of reserves)

    • auv - in situ gold value divided by issued shares divided by share closing price

    • grd - in situ gold grade

    • evoz - enterprise value per ounce of in situ gold

    • aup - gold production per share

    • auvp - gold production per share divided by share price

    • atv - average trade value over last 5 days

  • Use LIMIT at the top of the app to adjust the number of companies in the list. Averages returns for each metric are computed based on the LIMIT for each metric and shown with a quartile color scheme. Click on a metric to show the companies in that list that generated to average return. The list of companies is always relative to highlighted column.

    Set the LIMIT to the maximum value in the drop down to show all companies. 25 companies ofter provides the best return over a given time period.

  • Use the Reference date to set the date from which returns over Jump trading xx days is computed. If a stock does not have a closing price xx days after the Reference date then it is excluded from average computation.

  • Companies have at least 250K ounces of in situ gold and at least 12% of the their in situ metal value from gold. Other preset filter details to be documented in a future alpha release.

  • All comments, questions and suggests are welcome - please e-mail: dennis@goldminerpulse.com

TSX/TSXv Gold Explorer / Developer - Rankings Based on Fundamental Metrics

A mobile friendly alpha release of the a TSX/TSXv gold explorer/developer single page application is now available for review at here. Use this tool to:

  • Order TSX/TSXv gold explorer/developers using fundamental metrics:

    • auoz - in situ gold ounces (resources inclusive of reserves)

    • auv - in situ gold value divided by issued shares divided by share closing price

    • grd - in situ gold grade

    • evoz - enterprise value per ounce of in situ gold

    • atv - average trade value over last 5 days

  • Compute returns from any trading date (Reference Date) from January 2013 to latest update (typically updated after market close each day and end of week worst case) and for a number of holding periods ranging from days to years.

  • Closing price is a major issue with this group as on any given day there are a few to many stocks that did not trade. This version uses the last closing price, which may be from a previous day, to compute returns. Set the SPREAD in the top line of the app to added up to 1 cent to each buy and subtract up to 1 cent on each sell to make returns calculations more realistic. Design intent is to not show a price if a stock has not traded in the last 9 days. Other end of day price adjustments to be applied in future alpha version.

  • All comments, questions and suggests are welcome - please e-mail: dennis@goldminerpulse.com





 

Gold and Silver Miner Daily Update Counts

The following plot shows showing a per day count of gold/silver producers/developers/explorers with one or more "metric impacting" Sedar updates (e.g. resource disclosures, financial statements, shares for debt, private placements, options grants, project ownership changes, mergers/acquisitions, etc.).

As of 11 July 2016, plot updates are being made at the end of each trading day, typically after GLD, GDX and GDXJ have reported their daily stats.

Note: Snapshots are always taken at 4PM of the current day. Any filings after 4PM will only be counted at the next close.

   

Gold and Silver Production Statistics

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 25.04M ounces (858.51 tons or 778.83 tonnes), a 1.3% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 166.5M ounces (5,708.57 tons or 5,178.73 tonnes), a -3.8% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of October, November, December 2016, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Reporting
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Silver Δ
74 of 81 6,161,657 oz
 
211.3 tons
 
191.6 tonne
10% 37,234,196 oz
 
1,277 tons
 
1,158 tonne
-5%

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Gold Reserves
(tons)

 

Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Gold Producers

13609 34435

Gold Developers

3891 13977

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2212 8447

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

114 4932

All Gold Equities

19825 61791

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Silver Reserves
(tons)

 

Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Silver Producers

117532 288877

Silver Developers

40135 131106

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6563 43965

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

541 39900

All Silver Equities

164772 503848

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity

 
Metric

Producers
 

 

Developers
 

 

Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

 

Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

 

Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$84 $13 $6 $20

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $13 $3 $22

Net Working Capital
(US$)

$22,377M $1,448M $489M $1,339M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies

6

Gold/Silver Producers

81

Gold/Silver Developers

103

Gold/Silver Explorers

210

Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)

~30,000

Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.

 

Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $111,295
Gold & Silver Streamers $22,287
Gold & Silver Developers $10,999
Gold & Silver Explorers $7,726
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $152,306
 
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
$534,929

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 25% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 25% of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

NOTE October 24, 2016: Lowered the TSX/TSXv producer gold production estimate to 25% down from 33% - thus the spike in Market Cap Estimate for the World's Gold & Silver miners.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

 

Gold Price Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

GLD ETF Bullion Holdings Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

Click here for a scatter plot of GLD gold holdings versus price of gold.

DXY 4PM Quote Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the Gold Held in the GLD ETF

The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:

On a year by year basis the positive correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings follows:

Finally, the correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings over the last 10+ years of the GLD ETF follows:

Click here for more scatter plots.

 

LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Close

The DXY has been negatively correlated with gold price in recent years. The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:



 

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Gold ETF Money Flows

Daily Price of Gold changes
Money Flows in/out of GLD
plus the SGE Premium and Settlement volume
mon-dd POG
% Chg
GLD SGE
Prem.
SGE
Sett.
Volume
March 29 0.22% $10 10.18t
March 28 0.39% $71.6M $18 19.47t
March 27 0.62% $107.6M $15 22.48t

March 24 0.09% $71.4M $8 25.33t
March 23 0.11% $11 17.14t
March 22 0.29% $12 20.21t
March 21 0.79% $165.7M $1 15.95t
March 20 0.46% $152.6M $14 18.30t

March 17 0.21% $127.0M $12 20.19t
March 16 0.46% $93.7M $17 16.46t
March 15 1.83% $171.1M $1 11.48t
March 14 0.49% $114.6M $28 15.18t
March 13 0.01% $263.7M $22 13.81t

March 10 0.19% $343.4M $11 16.94t
March 9 0.58% $103.6M $23 15.77t
March 8 0.58% $22 9.66t
March 7 0.82% $23 14.79t
March 6 0.72% $158.8M $20 16.88t

March 3 0.03% $186.9M $18 15.82t
March 2 1.13% $78.9M $21 17.46t
March 1 0.11% $94.5M $4 16.55t
February 28 0.02% $15 16.56t
February 27 0.45% $18 20.08t

February 24 0.66% $10 21.79t
February 23 0.81% $2 14.92t
February 22 0.17% $7 17.37t
February 21 0.02% $8 12.67t
February 20 NA NA NA 12.85t

February 17 0.23% $94.6M $10 11.29t
February 16 0.53% $9 9.21t
February 15 0.39% $105.1M $5 10.23t
February 14 0.17% $13 10.52t
February 13 0.64% $153.1M $16 14.56t

A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.

A X indicates the GDX ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings.

POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.

For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.

The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2017 (YTD average): $12.55

  • 2016 (Full year average): $5.72

  • 2015 (Full year average): $2.17

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
29 March 2017 279.63 $1263 $1253 $10
28 March 2017 280.36 $1268 $1250 $18
27 March 2017 280.51 $1269 $1254 $15
24 March 2017 277.99 $1255 $1247 $8
23 March 2017 278.26 $1257 $1246 $11
22 March 2017 278.73 $1260 $1247 $12
...
28 September 2016 284.45 $1326 $1323 $3
27 September 2016 283.49 $1339 $1327 $12
26 September 2016 287.01 $1339 $1337 $2
23 September 2016 286.83 $1338 $1337 $1
22 September 2016 286.59 $1337 $1337 $0
21 September 2016 284.13 $1324 $1334 $10
...
30 March 2016 256.53 $1234 $1225 $9
29 March 2016 254.69 $1217 $1241 $24
28 March 2016 255.20 $1224 $1219 $4
25 March 2016 255.82 $1221 NA NA
24 March 2016 254.88 $1217 $1217 $0
23 March 2016 258.03 $1233 $1220 $13

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.

 

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