GoldMinerPulse - BTC, ETH, HIVE, HUT, BITF Trend Tracking

Exploring BTC-HIVE, ETH-HIVE, BTC-ETH, HIVE-HUT, etc. Trends


Trend Vs Correlation

Correlation is defined as the linear relationship between two variables. I have often misused correlation in studies by assuming a linear relationship exists between prices.

An alternate way to look at relationships between BTC/ETH coins and HIVE/HUT/BITF crypto miners is to look at trend direction of the various pairs and ignoring their time variant beta.

The variable x and y are a trending match on a give day only if:

The time variant beta between two price series is often highly non-linear and therefore not appropriate to classical correlation studies (Pearson, Spearman and the like).

This page presents the price trend relationship between the BTC and ETH versus the major BTC/ETH miners (HIVE, HUT and BITF) trading on the TSX/TSXv.

In these chart studies we look at the rolling average of trending matches on a 21 day rolling average (approximately 1 month) and a 63 day rolling average (approximately 1 quarter).

An x day rolling average for HIVE vs BTC (or any other pair) is computed as:

Trend Observations

The day by day trend matches over the most recent 21 days (and the % match over the last 21 days) for the various BTC, ETH and miner combinations is shown in the table below.

You can download the entire CSV file, containing the day by day trend matches used to produce the charts below, here.

There are likely a significant number of hedge funds in the BTC/ETH market space. It is also likely that hedge players short HIVE (and HUT) while going long BTC or visa versa in various trading strategies.

The following set of tables shows various trend combinations between two groups -- one group is made up of BTC and ETH while the second group is made up of HIVE, HUT and BITF. The highest trend matches occur with in a groups (i.e. BTC to ETH and HIVE to HUT) while trend matches between members in different groups are usually lower.

Updates

The table above and the figure below are updated on a daily basis (typically around midnight EDT). Please send me any feedback / suggestions / clarification requests.

HIVE and HUT Trend

 

 

BTC vs ETH Trend 63 Rolling Day Average

 

BTC vs HIVE, HUT and BITF Trend 63 Day Rolling Average

ETH vs HIVE, HUT and BITF Trend 63 Day Rolling Average

 

BTC vs ETH Trend 21 Day Rolling Average

 

BTC vs HIVE, HUT and BITF Trend 21 Day Rolling Average

 

ETH vs HIVE, HUT and BITF Trend 21 Day Rolling Average

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